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Abbott on gay marriage, the republic and the bill of rights. Add to this her opposition to gay marriage and teachers unions, and it is easy to recognize that conservatism is deeply bred into the Australian mainstream. All the available public opinion evidence, moreover, indicates that the key voting groups that help decide federal elections are sections of the socially conservative working and lower-middle classes – otherwise known as “Howard battlers,” the equivalent of Reagan Democrats in the United States.

In stark contrast with the so-called left-wing elites from metropolitan Melbourne and Sydney who care passionately about refugees, multiculturalism and man-made global warming, the “battlers” are mortgaged to the hilt after participating in a property boom that rivalled Canada’s. Located mainly in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Brisbane and especially the sun-belt seats of Queensland, they are also deeply concerned about population pressures and illegal immigrants. It was these people Ms. Gillard and mr. Abbott have been courting in recent weeks. Then there is foreign policy, where Labor and the coalition have clashed bitterly in the past, most notably over Vietnam and more recently Iraq. the subject rarely came up during the election, largely because Ms. Gillard and mr. Abbott virtually agree with each other. both are strong supporters of the U.S. alliance that has been the centrepiece of Australian defence policy since the second World War. they are deeply committed to the war effort in Afghanistan, where Australia has about 1,500 troops. (Last week, Australia lost its 18th soldier.) both are committed to the decades-long engagement with East Asia. It is hardly surprising that a broad cross-section of the Australian people strongly supports the U.S. alliance. For one thing, it serves real and substantial interests, such as intelligence and the all-important security guarantee.

For another thing, the need for a great and powerful friend for this country of 22 million is deeply embedded in the national psyche. from its birth as a state in 1901, Australia has always sought a close association with a great power with which it shares values and interests. But the nature of the alliance will change. the spectacular rise of China means different things for the United States and Australia. For the former, its main significance is the emergence of a potent geopolitical rival; for the latter, it is the opportunity for a rewarding partnership, and that opportunity is being eagerly seized by Australia. China is Australia’s largest trading partner. with exports to and imports from China growing at more than 20 per cent a year, and with the compatibility that exists between Australia’s vast mineral and energy resources and the needs of the Chinese economy, it does not seem improbable that China will become even more important to Australia’s national interest. To their credit, both Ms. Gillard and mr. Abbott, as well as their parties, recognize this reality. But there are also risks and uncertainties involved. Canberra won’t face a hard, stark choice between Washington and Beijing. But as numerous security analysts argue, Australia will need to learn to play a more demanding diplomatic game than ever before, one that will on occasion involve the difficult feat of riding two horses simultaneously. That’s the medium to long term down under. For the immediate future, however, Australians are increasingly focused on the local. and regardless of the winner of this weekend’s tight election contest, Australia will remain a pretty conservative place. Tom Switzer is editor of the Spectator Australia and a research associate at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. The Globe and Mail

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